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UK housing market

The UK housing market is continuing to recover, with strength being seen across all regions. Housing activity levels are increasing, with 2015 transactions totalling 1.23 million, flat on the prior year (source: HM Revenue & Customs).

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Housing supply

The supply of new housing has increased, with new build registrations reaching their highest levels since 2007. New build registrations in Q1 2016 totalled 37k down 7% on the same period last year, although private registrations have remained flat. (Source: National House Builders Council (NHBC)). New housing starts remain c. 40,000 lower than the pre-downturn peak and significantly lower than that required to meet the demand from new household creation. The Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) estimates that 221,000 homes need to be created per annum until 2021 to meet the demand from new household creation in England.

NHBC quarterly new build registrations (United Kingdom)

color x y actual prefix postfix
#5b9bd5 Q1-06 45,854 45,854
#5b9bd5 Q2-06 42,323 42,323
#5b9bd5 Q3-06 35,044 35,044
#5b9bd5 Q4-06 30,147 30,147
#5b9bd5 Q1-07 43,436 43,436
#5b9bd5 Q2-07 41,985 41,985
#5b9bd5 Q3-07 40,268 40,268
#5b9bd5 Q4-07 35,704 35,704
#5b9bd5 Q1-08 29,137 29,137
#5b9bd5 Q2-08 20,973 20,973
#5b9bd5 Q3-08 13,358 13,358
#5b9bd5 Q4-08 8,646 8,646
#5b9bd5 Q1-09 8,613 8,613
#5b9bd5 Q2-09 13,328 13,328
#5b9bd5 Q3-09 15,577 15,577
#5b9bd5 Q4-09 18,393 18,393
#5b9bd5 Q1-10 18,412 18,412
#5b9bd5 Q2-10 19,977 19,977
#5b9bd5 Q3-10 20,594 20,594
#5b9bd5 Q4-10 18,551 18,551
#5b9bd5 Q1-11 19,092 19,092
#5b9bd5 Q2-11 21,608 21,608
#5b9bd5 Q3-11 21,770 21,770
#5b9bd5 Q4-11 15,780 15,780
#5b9bd5 Q1-12 20,310 20,310
#5b9bd5 Q2-12 19,526 19,526
#5b9bd5 Q3-12 20,328 20,328
#5b9bd5 Q4-12 17,961 17,961
#5b9bd5 Q1-13 23,608 23,608
#5b9bd5 Q2-13 25,209 25,209
#5b9bd5 Q3-13 24,984 24,984
#5b9bd5 Q4-13 23,598 23,598
#5b9bd5 Q1-14 24,414 24,414
#5b9bd5 Q2-14 27,527 27,527
#5b9bd5 Q3-14 28,468 28,468
#5b9bd5 Q4-14 29,994 29,994
#5b9bd5 Q1-15 30,691 30,691
#5b9bd5 Q2-15 30,462 30,462
#5b9bd5 Q3-15 28,527 28,527
#5b9bd5 Q4-15 28,997 28,997
#5b9bd5 Q1-16 28,398 28,398

(1) Data source: NHBC

Help to Buy - update

In April 2013 the Government introduced the Help to Buy scheme to improve the supply of mortgage finance, in particular to first time buyers. There are two parts to the scheme: Help to Buy (Equity Loan), providing an equity loan of 20% for new homes in England, and Help to Buy (Mortgage Guarantee), which can be used on all home purchases. Help to Buy (Equity Loan) has had a major impact upon new housebuilding, enabling over 74,000 purchases in England, with 81% of purchasers using the scheme being first time buyers (source: DCLG, as at 31 December 2015) . In November 2015, the Government announced that Help to Buy (Equity Loan) would be extended until 2021, and that the equity loan percentage would increase to 40% in London.

Mortgage availability

There has been an improvement in the availability of mortgage finance over the past few years, with gross mortgage lending continuing to increase on the prior year. The Council of Mortgage Lenders forecast 2016 lending to total c. £237 billion, up 7% on the prior year (2015: c. £220 billion).

Mortgage rates are at historic lows, reflecting the attractive interest rate environment and the range of products available.

Bank of England average mortgage rates

color x y Standard Variable Rate prefix postfix
#5b9bd5 31-Jan-95 8.13 8.21
#5b9bd5 28-Feb-95 8.38 8.33
#5b9bd5 31-Mar-95 8.08 8.36
#5b9bd5 30-Apr-95 8.29 8.36
#5b9bd5 31-May-95 8.22 8.36
#5b9bd5 30-Jun-95 7.94 8.35
#5b9bd5 31-Jul-95 7.89 8.36
#5b9bd5 31-Aug-95 7.99 8.36
#5b9bd5 30-Sep-95 7.99 8.36
#5b9bd5 31-Oct-95 7.99 8
#5b9bd5 30-Nov-95 7.99 7.96
#5b9bd5 31-Dec-95 7.99 7.95
#5b9bd5 31-Jan-96 6.7 7.72
#5b9bd5 29-Feb-96 6.65 7.5
#5b9bd5 31-Mar-96 6.49 7.46
#5b9bd5 30-Apr-96 6.62 7.3
#5b9bd5 31-May-96 7.01 7.17
#5b9bd5 30-Jun-96 7.06 7.15
#5b9bd5 31-Jul-96 7.12 7.15
#5b9bd5 31-Aug-96 7.09 6.99
#5b9bd5 30-Sep-96 7.06 6.93
#5b9bd5 31-Oct-96 6.96 6.92
#5b9bd5 30-Nov-96 6.94 6.92
#5b9bd5 31-Dec-96 7.24 7.01
#5b9bd5 31-Jan-97 7.29 7.18
#5b9bd5 28-Feb-97 7.35 7.22
#5b9bd5 31-Mar-97 7.11 7.21
#5b9bd5 30-Apr-97 7.24 7.22
#5b9bd5 31-May-97 7.15 7.27
#5b9bd5 30-Jun-97 7.14 7.64
#5b9bd5 31-Jul-97 7.2 7.86
#5b9bd5 31-Aug-97 7.17 8.15
#5b9bd5 30-Sep-97 7.06 8.33
#5b9bd5 31-Oct-97 7.07 8.36
#5b9bd5 30-Nov-97 7.04 8.37
#5b9bd5 31-Dec-97 7.13 8.5
#5b9bd5 31-Jan-98 7.13 8.56
#5b9bd5 28-Feb-98 7.08 8.59
#5b9bd5 31-Mar-98 7.02 8.59
#5b9bd5 30-Apr-98 7.14 8.59
#5b9bd5 31-May-98 7.12 8.59
#5b9bd5 30-Jun-98 6.94 8.59
#5b9bd5 31-Jul-98 7.08 8.8
#5b9bd5 31-Aug-98 7.33 8.83
#5b9bd5 30-Sep-98 7.27 8.87
#5b9bd5 31-Oct-98 6.91 8.85
#5b9bd5 30-Nov-98 6.66 8.58
#5b9bd5 31-Dec-98 6.42 8
#5b9bd5 31-Jan-99 5.9 7.6
#5b9bd5 28-Feb-99 5.78 7.35
#5b9bd5 31-Mar-99 5.64 6.85
#5b9bd5 30-Apr-99 5.71 6.83
#5b9bd5 31-May-99 5.72 6.75
#5b9bd5 30-Jun-99 5.89 6.73
#5b9bd5 31-Jul-99 6 6.72
#5b9bd5 31-Aug-99 6.19 6.72
#5b9bd5 30-Sep-99 6.22 6.72
#5b9bd5 31-Oct-99 6.5 6.82
#5b9bd5 30-Nov-99 6.6 6.87
#5b9bd5 31-Dec-99 6.52 7.1
#5b9bd5 31-Jan-00 6.78 7.13
#5b9bd5 29-Feb-00 6.79 7.38
#5b9bd5 31-Mar-00 6.45 7.62
#5b9bd5 30-Apr-00 6.31 7.63
#5b9bd5 31-May-00 6.39 7.64
#5b9bd5 30-Jun-00 6.46 7.64
#5b9bd5 31-Jul-00 6.37 7.64
#5b9bd5 31-Aug-00 6.35 7.63
#5b9bd5 30-Sep-00 6.31 7.59
#5b9bd5 31-Oct-00 6.05 7.59
#5b9bd5 30-Nov-00 6.06 7.59
#5b9bd5 31-Dec-00 6.03 7.55
#5b9bd5 31-Jan-01 5.78 7.56
#5b9bd5 28-Feb-01 5.7 7.56
#5b9bd5 31-Mar-01 5.68 7.27
#5b9bd5 30-Apr-01 5.63 7.3
#5b9bd5 31-May-01 5.65 7.03
#5b9bd5 30-Jun-01 5.72 6.81
#5b9bd5 31-Jul-01 5.92 6.81
#5b9bd5 31-Aug-01 5.58 6.8
#5b9bd5 30-Sep-01 5.39 6.54
#5b9bd5 31-Oct-01 5.06 6.32
#5b9bd5 30-Nov-01 4.84 6.06
#5b9bd5 31-Dec-01 4.98 5.67
#5b9bd5 31-Jan-02 5.06 5.66
#5b9bd5 28-Feb-02 5.14 5.66
#5b9bd5 31-Mar-02 5.22 5.65
#5b9bd5 30-Apr-02 5.35 5.65
#5b9bd5 31-May-02 5.43 5.66
#5b9bd5 30-Jun-02 5.41 5.66
#5b9bd5 31-Jul-02 5.3 5.66
#5b9bd5 31-Aug-02 4.59 5.66
#5b9bd5 30-Sep-02 4.5 5.65
#5b9bd5 31-Oct-02 4.43 5.66
#5b9bd5 30-Nov-02 4.45 5.65
#5b9bd5 31-Dec-02 4.62 5.64
#5b9bd5 31-Jan-03 4.5 5.64
#5b9bd5 28-Feb-03 4.14 5.63
#5b9bd5 31-Mar-03 4.06 5.49
#5b9bd5 30-Apr-03 4.06 5.51
#5b9bd5 31-May-03 3.91 5.5
#5b9bd5 30-Jun-03 3.85 5.5
#5b9bd5 31-Jul-03 3.87 5.5
#5b9bd5 31-Aug-03 4.32 5.32
#5b9bd5 30-Sep-03 4.56 5.31
#5b9bd5 31-Oct-03 4.98 5.3
#5b9bd5 30-Nov-03 5.1 5.32
#5b9bd5 31-Dec-03 5.05 5.59
#5b9bd5 31-Jan-04 4.95 5.59
#5b9bd5 29-Feb-04 4.89 5.59
#5b9bd5 31-Mar-04 4.9 5.81
#5b9bd5 30-Apr-04 5.11 5.81
#5b9bd5 31-May-04 5.18 5.82
#5b9bd5 30-Jun-04 5.52 6.08
#5b9bd5 31-Jul-04 5.53 6.32
#5b9bd5 31-Aug-04 5.47 6.32
#5b9bd5 30-Sep-04 5.33 6.59
#5b9bd5 31-Oct-04 5.29 6.61
#5b9bd5 30-Nov-04 5.06 6.6
#5b9bd5 31-Dec-04 5.07 6.6
#5b9bd5 31-Jan-05 4.99 6.61
#5b9bd5 28-Feb-05 5.07 6.61
#5b9bd5 31-Mar-05 5.2 6.61
#5b9bd5 30-Apr-05 5.16 6.62
#5b9bd5 31-May-05 4.91 6.62
#5b9bd5 30-Jun-05 4.77 6.62
#5b9bd5 31-Jul-05 4.59 6.61
#5b9bd5 31-Aug-05 4.56 6.58
#5b9bd5 30-Sep-05 4.52 6.4
#5b9bd5 31-Oct-05 4.54 6.35
#5b9bd5 30-Nov-05 4.74 6.35
#5b9bd5 31-Dec-05 4.74 6.35
#5b9bd5 31-Jan-06 4.62 6.36
#5b9bd5 28-Feb-06 4.71 6.37
#5b9bd5 31-Mar-06 4.72 6.41
#5b9bd5 30-Apr-06 4.77 6.41
#5b9bd5 31-May-06 5 6.4
#5b9bd5 30-Jun-06 5 6.4
#5b9bd5 31-Jul-06 5.01 6.4
#5b9bd5 31-Aug-06 5.1 6.4
#5b9bd5 30-Sep-06 5.1 6.65
#5b9bd5 31-Oct-06 4.99 6.68
#5b9bd5 30-Nov-06 5.2 6.7
#5b9bd5 31-Dec-06 5.15 6.98
#5b9bd5 31-Jan-07 5.32 7.01
#5b9bd5 28-Feb-07 5.46 7.2
#5b9bd5 31-Mar-07 5.55 7.19
#5b9bd5 30-Apr-07 5.62 7.22
#5b9bd5 31-May-07 5.7 7.23
#5b9bd5 30-Jun-07 5.98 7.46
#5b9bd5 31-Jul-07 6.07 7.44
#5b9bd5 31-Aug-07 6.11 7.69
#5b9bd5 30-Sep-07 6.05 7.74
#5b9bd5 31-Oct-07 6.11 7.74
#5b9bd5 30-Nov-07 6.09 7.72
#5b9bd5 31-Dec-07 6.06 7.68
#5b9bd5 31-Jan-08 5.97 7.51
#5b9bd5 29-Feb-08 5.74 7.5
#5b9bd5 31-Mar-08 5.8 7.24
#5b9bd5 30-Apr-08 6.06 7.23
#5b9bd5 31-May-08 6.26 6.95
#5b9bd5 30-Jun-08 6.6 6.92
#5b9bd5 31-Jul-08 6.35 6.92
#5b9bd5 31-Aug-08 6.08 6.93
#5b9bd5 30-Sep-08 5.96 6.95
#5b9bd5 31-Oct-08 5.83 6.91
#5b9bd5 30-Nov-08 5.1 6.34
#5b9bd5 31-Dec-08 4.77 5.38
#5b9bd5 31-Jan-09 4.35 4.73
#5b9bd5 28-Feb-09 4.35 4.38
#5b9bd5 31-Mar-09 3.98 4.06
#5b9bd5 30-Apr-09 4.02 3.82
#5b9bd5 31-May-09 3.98 3.83
#5b9bd5 30-Jun-09 4.45 3.95
#5b9bd5 31-Jul-09 4.42 4.11
#5b9bd5 31-Aug-09 4.43 3.93
#5b9bd5 30-Sep-09 4.47 3.91
#5b9bd5 31-Oct-09 4.32 3.91
#5b9bd5 30-Nov-09 4.1 3.98
#5b9bd5 31-Dec-09 4.05 3.97
#5b9bd5 31-Jan-10 3.97 4.08
#5b9bd5 28-Feb-10 3.88 4.05
#5b9bd5 31-Mar-10 3.92 4.04
#5b9bd5 30-Apr-10 3.82 3.99
#5b9bd5 31-May-10 3.78 3.94
#5b9bd5 30-Jun-10 3.67 3.92
#5b9bd5 31-Jul-10 3.77 3.92
#5b9bd5 31-Aug-10 3.74 3.94
#5b9bd5 30-Sep-10 3.8 3.93
#5b9bd5 31-Oct-10 3.68 3.91
#5b9bd5 30-Nov-10 3.53 3.91
#5b9bd5 31-Dec-10 3.5 3.91
#5b9bd5 31-Jan-11 3.7 4.04
#5b9bd5 28-Feb-11 3.7 4.07
#5b9bd5 31-Mar-11 3.68 4.07
#5b9bd5 30-Apr-11 3.66 4
#5b9bd5 31-May-11 3.51 4
#5b9bd5 30-Jun-11 3.36 4.05
#5b9bd5 31-Jul-11 3.14 4.1
#5b9bd5 31-Aug-11 3 4.11
#5b9bd5 30-Sep-11 2.92 4.12
#5b9bd5 31-Oct-11 3.04 4.14
#5b9bd5 30-Nov-11 3.14 4.13
#5b9bd5 31-Dec-11 3.22 4.12
#5b9bd5 31-Jan-12 3.27 4.18
#5b9bd5 29-Feb-12 3.37 4.14
#5b9bd5 31-Mar-12 3.44 4.1
#5b9bd5 30-Apr-12 3.66 4.1
#5b9bd5 31-May-12 3.68 4.16
#5b9bd5 30-Jun-12 3.74 4.22
#5b9bd5 31-Jul-12 3.67 4.24
#5b9bd5 31-Aug-12 3.69 4.27
#5b9bd5 30-Sep-12 3.67 4.29
#5b9bd5 31-Oct-12 3.49 4.32
#5b9bd5 30-Nov-12 3.43 4.32
#5b9bd5 31-Dec-12 3.35 4.35
#5b9bd5 31-Jan-13 3.11 4.38
#5b9bd5 28-Feb-13 2.92 4.38
#5b9bd5 31-Mar-13 2.9 4.34
#5b9bd5 30-Apr-13 2.87 4.35
#5b9bd5 31-May-13 2.69 4.38
#5b9bd5 30-Jun-13 2.63 4.38
#5b9bd5 31-Jul-13 2.62 4.37
#5b9bd5 31-Aug-13 2.58 4.36
#5b9bd5 30-Sep-13 2.54 4.35
#5b9bd5 31-Oct-13 2.48 4.37
#5b9bd5 30-Nov-13 2.44 4.41
#5b9bd5 31-Dec-13 2.4 4.39
#5b9bd5 31-Jan-14 2.37 4.41
#5b9bd5 28-Feb-14 2.38 4.43
#5b9bd5 31-Mar-14 2.37 4.43
#5b9bd5 30-Apr-14 2.54 4.43
#5b9bd5 31-May-14 2.56 4.42
#5b9bd5 30-Jun-14 2.6 4.36
#5b9bd5 31-Jul-14 2.54 4.45
#5b9bd5 31-Aug-14 2.54 4.45
#5b9bd5 30-Sep-14 2.46 4.52
#5b9bd5 31-Oct-14 2.21 4.53
#5b9bd5 30-Nov-14 2.17 4.49
#5b9bd5 31-Dec-14 2.08 4.49
#5b9bd5 31-Jan-15 2.01 4.56
#5b9bd5 28-Feb-15 1.96 4.51
#5b9bd5 31-Mar-15 1.99 4.51
#5b9bd5 30-Apr-15 1.95 4.53
#5b9bd5 31-May-15 1.90 4.55
#5b9bd5 30-Jun-15 1.83 4.49
#5b9bd5 31-Jul-15 1.87 4.5
#5b9bd5 31-Aug-15 1.95 4.48
#5b9bd5 30-Sep-15 1.91 4.5
#5b9bd5 31-Oct-15 1.87 4.54
#5b9bd5 30-Nov-15 1.92 4.49
#5b9bd5 31-Dec-15 1.9 4.49
#5b9bd5 31-Jan-16 1.9 4.56
#5b9bd5 28-Feb-16 1.93 4.67
#5b9bd5 31-Mar-16 1.87 4.57
#5b9bd5 30-Apr-16 1.83 4.64

(1) Data source: Bank of England.
(2) Monthly interest rate of UK monetary financial institutions (excl. Central Bank) sterling 2 year (75% LTV) fixed rate mortgage to householders (%), not seasonally adjusted
(3) Monthly interest rate of UK monetary financial institutions (excl. Central Bank) sterling standard variable rate mortgage to households (%), not seasonally adjusted

House prices

The shortfall in the supply of housing stock and the greater availability of mortgage finance has meant that house prices have risen since the market recovery began in 2013, with house prices now back to 2007 levels. According to Halifax data, the UK average house price in May 2016, was £213,472 up 9.2% on the prior year.

Halifax monthly average house price

color x y actual prefix postfix
#5b9bd5 Jan-07 189,616 189,616
#5b9bd5 Feb-07 192,259 192,259
#5b9bd5 Mar-07 194,094 194,094
#5b9bd5 Apr-07 196,262 196,262
#5b9bd5 May-07 196,636 196,636
#5b9bd5 Jun-07 197,611 197,611
#5b9bd5 Jul-07 199,084 199,084
#5b9bd5 Aug-07 199,612 199,612
#5b9bd5 Sep-07 198,533 198,533
#5b9bd5 Oct-07 197,698 197,698
#5b9bd5 Nov-07 195,092 195,092
#5b9bd5 Dec-07 197,074 197,074
#5b9bd5 Jan-08 197,243 197,243
#5b9bd5 Feb-08 196,465 196,465
#5b9bd5 Mar-08 191,590 191,590
#5b9bd5 Apr-08 187,980 187,980
#5b9bd5 May-08 183,984 183,984
#5b9bd5 Jun-08 180,417 180,417
#5b9bd5 Jul-08 177,421 177,421
#5b9bd5 Aug-08 174,293 174,293
#5b9bd5 Sep-08 172,027 172,027
#5b9bd5 Oct-08 167,934 167,934
#5b9bd5 Nov-08 163,458 163,458
#5b9bd5 Dec-08 160,861 160,861
#5b9bd5 Jan-09 164,126 164,126
#5b9bd5 Feb-09 160,390 160,390
#5b9bd5 Mar-09 157,320 157,320
#5b9bd5 Apr-09 154,663 154,663
#5b9bd5 May-09 158,541 158,541
#5b9bd5 Jun-09 157,876 157,876
#5b9bd5 Jul-09 159,709 159,709
#5b9bd5 Aug-09 161,022 161,022
#5b9bd5 Sep-09 163,487 163,487
#5b9bd5 Oct-09 165,349 165,349
#5b9bd5 Nov-09 167,451 167,451
#5b9bd5 Dec-09 168,763 168,763
#5b9bd5 Jan-10 169,484 169,484
#5b9bd5 Feb-10 166,703 166,703
#5b9bd5 Mar-10 168,433 168,433
#5b9bd5 Apr-10 168,202 168,202
#5b9bd5 May-10 167,207 167,207
#5b9bd5 Jun-10 166,351 166,351
#5b9bd5 Jul-10 167,536 167,536
#5b9bd5 Aug-10 168,124 168,124
#5b9bd5 Sep-10 161,974 161,974
#5b9bd5 Oct-10 164,949 164,949
#5b9bd5 Nov-10 164,622 164,622
#5b9bd5 Dec-10 162,803 162,803
#5b9bd5 Jan-11 164,145 164,145
#5b9bd5 Feb-11 162,697 162,697
#5b9bd5 Mar-11 162,712 162,712
#5b9bd5 Apr-11 160,393 160,393
#5b9bd5 May-11 160,519 160,519
#5b9bd5 Jun-11 162,799 162,799
#5b9bd5 Jul-11 163,200 163,200
#5b9bd5 Aug-11 161,983 161,983
#5b9bd5 Sep-11 161,246 161,246
#5b9bd5 Oct-11 162,923 162,923
#5b9bd5 Nov-11 160,894 160,894
#5b9bd5 Dec-11 159,629 159,629
#5b9bd5 Jan-12 161,160 161,160
#5b9bd5 Feb-12 160,222 160,222
#5b9bd5 Mar-12 163,496 163,496
#5b9bd5 Apr-12 160,249 160,249
#5b9bd5 May-12 160,906 160,906
#5b9bd5 Jun-12 161,375 161,375
#5b9bd5 Jul-12 160,946 160,946
#5b9bd5 Aug-12 160,142 160,142
#5b9bd5 Sep-12 159,467 159,467
#5b9bd5 Oct-12 159,313 159,313
#5b9bd5 Nov-12 161,795 161,795
#5b9bd5 Dec-12 163,256 163,256
#5b9bd5 Jan-13 162,844 162,844
#5b9bd5 Feb-13 163,678 163,678
#5b9bd5 Mar-13 164,289 164,289
#5b9bd5 Apr-13 166,175 166,175
#5b9bd5 May-13 166,982 166,982
#5b9bd5 Jun-13 168,072 168,072
#5b9bd5 Jul-13 169,567 169,567
#5b9bd5 Aug-13 170,231 170,231
#5b9bd5 Sep-13 170,733 170,733
#5b9bd5 Oct-13 171,991 171,991
#5b9bd5 Nov-13 174,910 174,910
#5b9bd5 Dec-13 173,467 173,467
#5b9bd5 Jan-14 175,546 175,546
#5b9bd5 Feb-14 179,872 179,872
#5b9bd5 Mar-14 178,249 178,249
#5b9bd5 Apr-14 177,648 177,648
#5b9bd5 May-14 184,464 184,464
#5b9bd5 Jun-14 183,462 183,462
#5b9bd5 Jul-14 186,073 186,073
#5b9bd5 Aug-14 186,270 186,270
#5b9bd5 Sep-14 186,898 186,898
#5b9bd5 Oct-14 186,135 186,135
#5b9bd5 Nov-14 186,941 186,941
#5b9bd5 Dec-14 188,858 188,858
#5b9bd5 Jan-15 193,130 193,130
#5b9bd5 Feb-15 192,372 192,372
#5b9bd5 Mar-15 192,970 192,970
#5b9bd5 Apr-15 196,412 196,412
#5b9bd5 May-15 196,067 196,067
#5b9bd5 Jun-15 200,280 200,280
#5b9bd5 Jul-15 198,883 198,883
#5b9bd5 Aug-15 204,674 204,674
#5b9bd5 Sep-15 202,859 202,859
#5b9bd5 Oct-15 205,240 205,240
#5b9bd5 Nov-15 204,830 204,830
#5b9bd5 Dec-15 208,286 208,286
#5b9bd5 Jan-16 212,502 212,502
#5b9bd5 Feb-16 209,495 209,495
#5b9bd5 Mar-16 213,945 213,945
#5b9bd5 Apr-16 212,204 212,204
#5b9bd5 May-16 213,472 213,472

(1) Data source: Halifax

With the current attractive interest rate environment, mortgage affordability metrics are running below historic averages. According to Halifax affordability data, which is based on mortgage repayments as a percentage of income, the index is close to an all-time low level.

Halifax mortgage affordability index (%)

color x y average prefix postfix
#5b9bd5 1983 Q1 35.1 35.5
#5b9bd5 1983 Q2 35.0 35.5
#5b9bd5 1983 Q3 37.9 35.5
#5b9bd5 1983 Q4 37.6 35.5
#5b9bd5 1984 Q1 36.8 35.5
#5b9bd5 1984 Q2 34.9 35.5
#5b9bd5 1984 Q3 38.9 35.5
#5b9bd5 1984 Q4 39.8 35.5
#5b9bd5 1985 Q1 41.1 35.5
#5b9bd5 1985 Q2 42.9 35.5
#5b9bd5 1985 Q3 40.1 35.5
#5b9bd5 1985 Q4 39.4 35.5
#5b9bd5 1986 Q1 39.3 35.5
#5b9bd5 1986 Q2 36.3 35.5
#5b9bd5 1986 Q3 36.8 35.5
#5b9bd5 1986 Q4 39.4 35.5
#5b9bd5 1987 Q1 40.8 35.5
#5b9bd5 1987 Q2 39.8 35.5
#5b9bd5 1987 Q3 40.6 35.5
#5b9bd5 1987 Q4 40.2 35.5
#5b9bd5 1988 Q1 41.2 35.5
#5b9bd5 1988 Q2 41.9 35.5
#5b9bd5 1988 Q3 49.5 35.5
#5b9bd5 1988 Q4 59.2 35.5
#5b9bd5 1989 Q1 62.7 35.5
#5b9bd5 1989 Q2 63.7 35.5
#5b9bd5 1989 Q3 62.2 35.5
#5b9bd5 1989 Q4 63.8 35.5
#5b9bd5 1990 Q1 65.2 35.5
#5b9bd5 1990 Q2 65.5 35.5
#5b9bd5 1990 Q3 64.2 35.5
#5b9bd5 1990 Q4 59.9 35.5
#5b9bd5 1991 Q1 57.2 35.5
#5b9bd5 1991 Q2 50.9 35.5
#5b9bd5 1991 Q3 46.9 35.5
#5b9bd5 1991 Q4 44.8 35.5
#5b9bd5 1992 Q1 41.6 35.5
#5b9bd5 1992 Q2 38.9 35.5
#5b9bd5 1992 Q3 37.4 35.5
#5b9bd5 1992 Q4 31.6 35.5
#5b9bd5 1993 Q1 29.1 35.5
#5b9bd5 1993 Q2 28.5 35.5
#5b9bd5 1993 Q3 28.5 35.5
#5b9bd5 1993 Q4 27.6 35.5
#5b9bd5 1994 Q1 26.8 35.5
#5b9bd5 1994 Q2 27.2 35.5
#5b9bd5 1994 Q3 26.5 35.5
#5b9bd5 1994 Q4 25.9 35.5
#5b9bd5 1995 Q1 26.3 35.5
#5b9bd5 1995 Q2 26.2 35.5
#5b9bd5 1995 Q3 25.3 35.5
#5b9bd5 1995 Q4 24.5 35.5
#5b9bd5 1996 Q1 23.9 35.5
#5b9bd5 1996 Q2 23.6 35.5
#5b9bd5 1996 Q3 23.7 35.5
#5b9bd5 1996 Q4 24.6 35.5
#5b9bd5 1997 Q1 25.5 35.5
#5b9bd5 1997 Q2 26.0 35.5
#5b9bd5 1997 Q3 27.0 35.5
#5b9bd5 1997 Q4 27.4 35.5
#5b9bd5 1998 Q1 27.6 35.5
#5b9bd5 1998 Q2 27.6 35.5
#5b9bd5 1998 Q3 27.5 35.5
#5b9bd5 1998 Q4 27.4 35.5
#5b9bd5 1999 Q1 27.6 35.5
#5b9bd5 1999 Q2 27.0 35.5
#5b9bd5 1999 Q3 27.5 35.5
#5b9bd5 1999 Q4 28.6 35.5
#5b9bd5 2000 Q1 30.1 35.5
#5b9bd5 2000 Q2 30.6 35.5
#5b9bd5 2000 Q3 30.4 35.5
#5b9bd5 2000 Q4 30.2 35.5
#5b9bd5 2001 Q1 29.8 35.5
#5b9bd5 2001 Q2 29.5 35.5
#5b9bd5 2001 Q3 29.3 35.5
#5b9bd5 2001 Q4 28.4 35.5
#5b9bd5 2002 Q1 28.5 35.5
#5b9bd5 2002 Q2 29.2 35.5
#5b9bd5 2002 Q3 30.5 35.5
#5b9bd5 2002 Q4 32.3 35.5
#5b9bd5 2003 Q1 32.6 35.5
#5b9bd5 2003 Q2 33.4 35.5
#5b9bd5 2003 Q3 33.7 35.5
#5b9bd5 2003 Q4 34.8 35.5
#5b9bd5 2004 Q1 35.3 35.5
#5b9bd5 2004 Q2 37.7 35.5
#5b9bd5 2004 Q3 40.3 35.5
#5b9bd5 2004 Q4 40.5 35.5
#5b9bd5 2005 Q1 40.3 35.5
#5b9bd5 2005 Q2 39.8 35.5
#5b9bd5 2005 Q3 39.5 35.5
#5b9bd5 2005 Q4 39.2 35.5
#5b9bd5 2006 Q1 39.8 35.5
#5b9bd5 2006 Q2 40.3 35.5
#5b9bd5 2006 Q3 41.1 35.5
#5b9bd5 2006 Q4 43.1 35.5
#5b9bd5 2007 Q1 44.9 35.5
#5b9bd5 2007 Q2 46.2 35.5
#5b9bd5 2007 Q3 47.7 35.5
#5b9bd5 2007 Q4 47.3 35.5
#5b9bd5 2008 Q1 45.7 35.5
#5b9bd5 2008 Q2 42.0 35.5
#5b9bd5 2008 Q3 40.4 35.5
#5b9bd5 2008 Q4 35.1 35.5
#5b9bd5 2009 Q1 30.4 35.5
#5b9bd5 2009 Q2 29.9 35.5
#5b9bd5 2009 Q3 30.8 35.5
#5b9bd5 2009 Q4 31.3 35.5
#5b9bd5 2010 Q1 30.5 35.5
#5b9bd5 2010 Q2 30.4 35.5
#5b9bd5 2010 Q3 29.8 35.5
#5b9bd5 2010 Q4 29.0 35.5
#5b9bd5 2011 Q1 28.5 35.5
#5b9bd5 2011 Q2 28.7 35.5
#5b9bd5 2011 Q3 28.0 35.5
#5b9bd5 2011 Q4 27.5 35.5
#5b9bd5 2012 Q1 27.6 35.5
#5b9bd5 2012 Q2 27.9 35.5
#5b9bd5 2012 Q3 28.0 35.5
#5b9bd5 2012 Q4 27.8 35.5
#5b9bd5 2013 Q1 27.1 35.5
#5b9bd5 2013 Q2 26.9 35.5
#5b9bd5 2013 Q3 27.0 35.5
#5b9bd5 2013 Q4 27.1 35.5
#5b9bd5 2014 Q1 27.6 35.5
#5b9bd5 2014 Q2 28.4 35.5
#5b9bd5 2014 Q3 29.5 35.5
#5b9bd5 2014 Q4 29.6 35.5
#5b9bd5 2015 Q1 28.9 35.5
#5b9bd5 2015 Q2 28.8 35.5
#5b9bd5 2015 Q3 29.0 35.5
#5b9bd5 2015 Q4 29.9 35.5
#5b9bd5 2016 Q1 30.5 35.5

(1) Data source: Halifax

Outlook

Overall, the outlook for the housing market continues to be positive, with supportive government schemes and an attractive mortgage environment. Underlying demand for new housing is expected to remain strong in the long term but based on the current level of new housing starts, supply is unlikely to meet this demand in the short term.